Innovation forms the heart of organizations, though it is risky and driven by uncertainty, a fundamental issue that must be mitigated. Future-proofing is essential to capitalize on current uncertainty and innovation for improving business performance, and the emphasis of this essay is on anticipating the future by identifying relevant technological trends. Knowledge flow is the focus in much of the literature on innovation and technology trends, and a genuine environment is essential for creating any period of anticipation. The speed of change, interaction between trends, macro-environmental developments, and market structure are the major areas where trends are studied. This essay presents an overview of trends in past literature, reviews leading edge indicators, and considers what may influence future trends in technology.
This is coupled with an explanation of how an innovation map can be used for forecasting future technology trends. The next main section shows how a technology management position should be organized within the organization to make a period of anticipation for technological trends successful. After this, a conceptual innovation framework is presented and used to create an intervention strategy to feed a technology trend foray of the company. The paper concludes with a view of future research in the area of bottom-up ID and technology trend watching. Innovation and technological progress, unlike all other management activities, are risky ventures, a difficult game of anticipating and one that traditionally just stonewalled attempts to draw up future-oriented plans. In the process of improvement, innovation implementation has now been identified as a major problem by various authors.
The Importance of Future-Proofing Your Venture
Introducing a venture, product, service, platform, or business model in an environment of uncertainty is the rule, not the exception. Often businesses feel they are ahead of their time, only to realize their customers are catching up. The world is changing at a rapid pace, and innovation appears as something inevitable. Every business must anticipate the trends it is pivoting before they disrupt their plans. It is not only an advantage to know where to head, exploring wide spaces of opportunity, but also enabling one to pivot before it is already too late. Investing time, money, resources, and energy - getting attention - is not cheap, and the successful execution of a venture includes pivots when necessary. It solely depends on the actions we undertake today.
The longevity and success of a venture depend on the right vision of the future of possible trends that are coming. In this sense, we deeply believe that developing some kind of futurism culture in the core of the venture is necessary to succeed. For most of the small- and medium-sized startups, it is also a must to access tools and methodologies that can help them look and get ahead. As we delve into exploration and exploitation of opportunity, we must acknowledge that we possess some level of understanding about our own social world and that we have some idea about our opportunities that is, at least to some extent, already given.
Understanding Trends and Innovations
To future-proof your venture, you must learn to anticipate trends and blockbusters as well as make such discovery a "second nature" to you. In the long run, this could mean the capacity to spot megatrends. The question of what to look for is closely related to the study of innovation. Innovation is an action term and means reapplication. Reapplying means applying for the first time. Reapplication has three dynamics: using known principles to create new arrangements, changing principles when a new application calls for it, and formulating new principles. The variation in reapplication results in a logical arrangement of four kinds of innovation. Two are as old as applied creativity and reflect the history of all invention and genius. The third was invented by us and stuff scientists and reflects the history of strategic foresight over its seventy years. It is the fourth that is new, and it was also invented by us. It has been exemplified, but it is still not appreciated or understood. A revolution awaits.
We must define some terms. "Trend" refers to a long-term, wide-ranging, large-lot, futuristic direction, movement, or tendency toward a quantifiable end. In philosophy and informatics, it can refer to patterns of meaningful or meaningful behavior of some process, or describes the future capabilities and attitudes that will be driving most of the behavior next year. Nature is the same as or the outcome of a deep-seated, fundamental, inevitably transforming or radical shift in values, attitudes, norms, infrastructures, logic that will alter how we will work on the larger collective/societal levels in the next five to ten years. Both a precursor and a bellwether serve a community or industry and guide decision-making. A "megatrend" translates into humanitarian language as what we expect to be its magnitude. For some part of our planet, a megatrend with respect to their population could change the trend and be large beyond overweighting. The megatrends can be a quantitative description of a trend's impending acceleration beyond a horizon, perhaps intertwining or echoing through human civilization. A "blockbuster" describes a valuable not existing that everyone knows will be here in the quantum leap of a blockbuster, a revelation, or an innovization.
Defining Trends and Innovations
To begin, it is rather helpful to collective understanding to first discuss what trends and innovations are. These two terms are often used interchangeably in conversation when in essence there are clear distinctions between the two - a point also picked up by Materia such as Dr. Steven Moore and everyone's favorite futurist, Dr. Lawrence Miller. According to Dr. Moore, a trend is "an accumulation of impressions, ideas, and behaviors that appear to be contributing to a meaningful change; [it is] a movement underway that has not yet fully unfolded its full range of realization; [it is] a tectonic shift in the momentum of a problem, often with a solution attached." Innovations, on the other hand, are "a specific action or outcome that results from people consciously engaging with new trends and then seeking to normalize and perpetuate them within an existing system. Moore believes that a significant portion of trends never actually become innovations that lead to real systemic change because the "development and possession of the cognitive potential to be aware of trends that have yet to manifest as innovations" does not equal an innovation.
There is no universally agreed-upon definition for innovation, but to consider one small industry example, let us examine the science of interior design. In his definition in "Understanding Innovation in Interior Design," Dr. Nathan Owen writes how innovation is "the development and deployment of thoughtful and purposeful behavior in practice which is meaningful and has a positive economic, social or environmental impact to the growing global audience in domestic, commercial and public environments. This can translate, 'in practice,' into hundreds of things from, product innovation to, material and fabric use innovation to new application and transformation innovation." When we refer in this article to innovation, it is Owen's definition that we mean, discussing here how to use innovation tactics to stay ahead and anticipate the changing landscape of human-to-human experiences.
Methods for Anticipating Trends
a. Identifying "Signs of Change" Two general methods have been identified for anticipating trends. One is to keep abreast of what's going on in the market. The other is making an in-depth analysis, based on the needs of the intended clientele. A stepwise approach to developing new products, techniques, and strategies rests on defining a target prospect's needs and wants and on identifying the most promising tools, trends, and techniques to be applied. To be innovative, a person can not only act quickly with new information but must also have developed a strategic positioning that anticipates the trends.
b. Market Research Market research (e.g. customer surveys) is another way to get up-to-date information on consumers. But due to reasons of both confidentiality and methodology, standard market research is not always useful for the entrepreneur. Gathering trend information can be expensive, time-consuming, and misleading. On top of this, trend research for small to medium-sized businesses can be very difficult since traditional sources often neglect the smaller niches. Such firms are better off taking the lead in developing new trends, not following others. The same goes for start-up firms, which usually have no resources for trend research. Predictably, in addition to being lucrative, the area of trend research itself is a new trend. It is becoming easier to use the resources offered to find trend information, and it is quite possible to conduct this research for no cost beyond the purchase of a few reference books.
Market Research and Analysis
One of the key activities that you perform when starting a new venture is to conduct thorough market research and analysis. The results of this research help you arrive at certain strategic decisions which are important at the beginning stage, such as the determination of pricing, customer segment selection, location of the outlet, etc. Similarly, at a later stage in the operation of the venture, you might get some customer feedback and decide to instead serve another segment of customers, or instead cater to a separate need of the same customer that you have recognized.
You may be a start-up in the process of identifying a new market opportunity, or you may be an existing venture that does not want to be taken by surprise by unexpected developments. Either way, you want to peek into the future and identify consensus trends. This can be done by first making a long list of existing global trends, and then eliciting multiple views of a diverse group of advisors and experts from different industries on which ones will impact your venture. A good strategy is to base your investment thesis and proposed business model on trends that have a high degree of consensus and are most likely to materialize. In general, it is believed that some of the pervasive trends that are shaping the future are urbanization, pop-up business models, circular and shared economies, digital change, and aging society, among others. Focusing on these proven trends can help to hedge your bets as an investor, and to guide a start-up's development and give it a substantial and sustainable competitive edge.
Strategies for Staying Ahead in Innovation
Not surprisingly, innovation seems to lend itself to becoming the main topic for any conference or management keynote speech all over the world. Everyone seems to agree these days that the only way to stay ahead of the game is by staying a step ahead in the knowledge and innovation economies. The good news is that no matter what business, industry or sector one operates in, this mantra stands true - the world's leading consulting firms, technology and science parks, and business magazines have all jumped on the innovation bandwagon too.
Entrepreneurship is seemingly everywhere, which isn't just limited to start-ups. If we apply the definition of creating something new and different into the broader sense of having adaptability and a spirit of continuous innovation, it's pretty clear that being ahead in innovation can apply even to those who run well-established businesses. Disruption to your business model takes a back seat if you're in the driving seat - we need to begin with the end in mind, which is to stay ahead and remain at the cutting edge. This is first done by creating a culture of innovation with a number of strategies that mitigate external forces and help leapfrog the competition by being a trendsetter.
Strategies for staying ahead in innovation include attracting top talent, acting on your values, and catching and capitalizing on emerging trends - though there are those who are terrified of change, they must be embraced in order to grow and create new possibilities. Innovations that are future-proof are for those who are not intimidated by these trends and are essentially looking for their "what's next".
Building a Culture of Innovation
Many aspiring entrepreneurs are interested in future-oriented ways and innovation methods designed to keep a venture going no matter the changing times. Innovation is an essential element in future-proofing. After all, if a product or service remains unchanged for too long, it can quickly become irrelevant. In fact, a lack of creative ideas, speculation about new technologies affecting operations, or decreased demand are often cited as reasons why European ventures cease operations. Therefore, one goal of future-proofing is to establish an innovative, trend-oriented organization, i.e., to establish a culture of innovation that continues to inject your venture with new stock. The most forward-thinking form of branding is about the creation of organizations. As such, the FISHERS service curricula have also included guidance on the establishment of a vision where you would like to take your venture in the coming years. This vision is not meant to be an unchanging vessel but rather as a tool to engage your team and grant stakeholders greater insights into the personality, culture, or impact of your venture.
In this section, and in the subsequent chapters, we will highlight the mechanisms and strategies available to initiate a culture of innovation, break down the barriers preventing the development of new ideas, and help design methods that can scout for or try out potentially disruptive changes. Setting out to customize your venture and enacting some changes are among the first things entrepreneurs will face. At the heart of such efforts is the assumption that understanding social and environmental trends, and micro-targeting opportunities within those changes, can mitigate future risk and help carve out a distinctive brand. In the same way, a venture should be able to recognize its core operational competency that sets it apart from other ventures.
Case Studies
Throughout this report, we have described organizations that have successfully looked at trends to drive innovation. From the folks figuring out how we might build nuclear fusion systems, to CEOs at companies figuring out how to get money out of property – we’ve seen real companies and the real leaders that drive them. We’ll now share case studies of some companies that we know innovated in ways that are paying off for them in the light of what they anticipated or how they responded to changes that they perceived were unfolding.
Google has consistently been at the forefront of digital innovation. Underpinning its approach is a reliance on mining data. At the end of 2015, the tech giant launched Google Flu Trends. This system aimed to predict the prevalence of flu by looking at the volume of searches on the topic. By being a leading Google search topic, it was accepted that flu might be on the up. Within two years predictions had to be pulled because it was so off beam. There are many, many reasons why flu search volumes did not accurately reflect actual illness rates. But we shouldn’t throw the (Google) baby out with the bathwater. It’s just that flu was not a good predictor of illness. If search is the new data, then Google Health is the new GFT. Published in September 2015, Nature reports work carried about by the search giant. And it’s much more intriguing. Digital mammograms are being used to predict heart attacks – six long years before an actual attack happens. Until recently, these images were effectively wasted. Google has used these mammograms to spot early warning signs of a heart attack with a 70-80% success rate. They did this by reading the small print in the image, seeing detail that our human eyes can’t pick up.
Successful Companies That Anticipated Trends and Innovated
- Anticipated the move towards natural and ethical.
In developed regions, consumers are more conscious of the content of their food, favoring products that are natural, organic, and ethically created. Although not to the same extent, this trend is now beginning to move to developing countries, offering potential for tourism ventures operating in these locations to add value through the provenance of their food and drink.
- Identification of market.
Nature’s Treat was launched in 2004, at a time when the quality of hot chocolate was deteriorating. The founder commenced his business as a retro milk bar, creating a unique environment. One of his points of difference when crafting the perfect hot chocolate was the use of natural ingredients, including real milk as opposed to powdered milk. This practice appealed to customers who sought hot chocolate as a comfort drink. As a result of increased demand for takeaway hot chocolates and customers asking for hot chocolate to be made as they had purchased organic and fairtrade wine, it caused a shift in his service style. The business separated to form Nature’s Treat, offering a range of certified organic and biodynamic chocolate, coffee, and a selection of individual teas, including Dilmah premium single-origin leaf teas; all fairtrade and organic. In relation to his food products, he provides a variety of certified organic and biodynamic sweet and savory treats with at least 4 vegan and 4 gluten-free options available on his menu at all times. All of his produce is made on his premises, offering further transparency on what is included in the preparation of any processed products.
- Manages expectations.
As the majority of the product was organic, and the tea was single-origin, the novelty of the product attracted people within a specific target market range – those that enjoy the perceived benefits of fairtrade, natural, and organic not only for themselves but for others and the environment. While no known survey was conducted into the percentage of customers who come to the business because of these beliefs, he was able to ascertain through conversing with customers that the fairtrade and organic brands were contributing to the draw card for visiting the business and coming back to return with friends. They thought of themselves as being good people, and part of being a good person was eating, drinking coffee, and being merry while not exploiting people in developing countries to make it happen. He found people were generally eager to demonstrate and share this with their friends via word of mouth and ‘name me’ dinners.
If you want to get more inspiring content on such topics, you can subscribe to Gooinn Innovation Newsletter in Linkedin. 🚀
In addition, you can follow us on our social media accounts or you can always contact us at info@gooinn.co.